The simulation argument was authored by Nick Bostrom and asserts that one of three propositions must be true:
- Almost all civilizations go extinct before reaching a state of technological maturity required to run a convincing ancestor simulation.
- A civilization will lose interest in creating an ancestor simulation.
- We are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.
If propositions #1 and #2 are not true, then there is an estimated probability factor of between 20% to 50% that we are living in a simulation. Although it should be noted that this probability factor has very little basis in science. If we are living in a simulation then there is a higher probability that you are one of the simulated people whether than one of the exceptional non-simulated people.
While there is evidence that supports the simulation hypothesis, we do not know which of these 3 propositions are true. The following video features an interview with Nick Bostrom as conducted by Adam Ford at the Future of Humanity Institute Oxford University.